I realize it has been quite a long time since my last blog post. When I sat down the first time to start writing it, my goal was to document the awards season in movies and offer my opinions on the biggest films of the year. While I went to see multiple highly-touted movies this past year, I haven't really gotten around to watching the award shows that I always do. I just haven't been into it like I usually am. This is probably because Kathryn Bigelow's exclusion from the Best Director race for external political reasons is the straw that broke the camel's back, after many, many shocking exclusions and "victories" in these award ceremonies for movies that didn't deserve them.
I mean, let's look back in recent memory. The Artist won last year. I still haven't seen that movie. It's black and white and silent - pretty much a parallel of the excitement about film in 2011.
But then, there's the droll and boring King's Speech winning over The Social Network, a movie I didn't really enjoy, but was still the most relevant and hard-hitting film of 2010. And Bigelow's own Hurt Locker winning over Inglourious Basterds (not really in the conversation as other years, but still the wrong decision nonetheless) in '09 and Crash over Brokeback Mountain in '06 when post-9/11 social conservatism wouldn't let a better movie win because there were two men kissing in it. The list goes on and on.
And you know what? It doesn't matter at all. Everybody else has known this for a long time. I just haven't come to terms with it yet. Just because some producer gets handed a golden statue at the end of a boring, three hour celebration of the A-List doesn't make his movie the best of the year. It's just the opinion of a bunch of old white men. And as for my now former policy of watching every Best Picture nominee, I'm done with that too. I'm glad I didn't waste the hours it would have taken to get through Life of Pi, Amour, and Beasts of the Southern Wild, because I guarantee I would have hated all three of them.
With that, here is my final set of predictions for the Oscars (Only doing major categories this time):
Best Supporting Actress Nominees:
Amy Adams - The Master
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Sally Field - Lincoln
Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Frances McDormand (Moonrise Kingdom)
Who Should Win: Amy Adams
Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway
Amy Adams is unfortunately guilty of appearing in a movie that happened to come out a few months before Hathaway's Les Mis. It sucks, because she gave the best performance in a career littered with unbelievable supporting roles. Her Machiavellian, Lady MacBeth-like Peggy Dodd in The Master was one of the truly underrated characters in cinema of the year. Adams has always had a great presence on screen, and stood up to the overpowering Joaquin Phoenix and Philip Seymour Hoffman with a wicked ease. As for Anne Hathaway, she was pretty fantastic, but come on, I can rub some dirt on my face, cry for fifteen minutes of screen-time, and sing a song too. I don't think Hathaway did anything any other actress on her level couldn't do. And Amy Adams separated herself from every other actress in her generation in The Master.
Best Supporting Actor Nominees:
Alan Arkin - Argo
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Leonardo DiCaprio, for Christ's Sake
Who Should Win: Hoffman
Who Will Win: Christoph Waltz
This is probably the most up-for-grabs category in the whole she-bang. Each of the nominees is a former winner, also an interesting point. I'd like to see Hoffman win for similar reasons as Amy Adams - his undaunting, truly scary presence on screen was completely unmatched by the other actors in this list. But for God's sake, I don't know who Leo scorned in his past life, but the man gets no gratitude from the Academy. He was brilliant, as he has been in his storied career. His exclusion, after playing one of Tarantino's finest characters ever, is a travesty.
Best Director Nominees:
Michael Haneke - Amour
Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee - Life of Pi
I don't want to talk about it. If Kathryn Bigelow doesn't just go up on stage and take the award, the terrorists win. Spielberg's name will be in the envelope, though.
Best Actress Nominees:
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts - The Impossible
Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of The Southern Wild
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Kara Hayward (Moonrise Kingdom)
Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Ok, so I've only seen two of these movies. But the two I've seen are the important ones, and the award is either going to Chastain or Lawrence anyway. I'm going with Jennifer for the win, because she's got the momentum from the other awards and is riding the hot hand. People really, really like her because she pretends to be a lovable loser. She's relatable. It makes sense. Her Tiffany was also really, really well-acted. There's a lot of substance in her role and her performance was one of the best of the year. But she got to play off of a fantastic Bradley Cooper, Robert De Niro, and Jacki Weaver. The whole movie didn't revolve around her ability to be great at acting. It's just different for Chastain. The film depends on her ability to be as captivating and intense as she is. If she cracks even a little bit, the whole movie collapses. The final shot of Zero Dark Thirty, that's just the stuff of legend. I'll never be able to forget it, even if it is just a movie.
Best Actor Nominees:
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Denzel Washington - Flight
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Jared Gilman (Moonrise Kingdom), Logan Lerman (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Who I'm Glad Wasn't Nominated: Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained)
Who Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
I know my 'should' category is getting a little bit predictable here. But you have to see The Master to get it I think. The three main actors were really something else. But Phoenix, like Adams and Hoffman, has no chance. Day-Lewis will win, and I guess he was alright. I just really didn't like Lincoln and the man nearly put me to sleep. Just let me know when he decides to make another movie in four years.
Best Picture Nominees:
Amour
Argo
Beasts of The Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Who Should Have Been Nominated: The Master, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Moonrise Kingdom, maybe even Skyfall
Who Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Who Will Win: Argo
Argo, at the beginning of awards season, was a non-factor. And then it won the Golden Globe. And the BAFTA. And everything else. And now it's the heavy favorite for Best Picture. And it was ok. Not a bad movie by any means, entertaining certainly, and filled up an hour and a half on an otherwise quiet Friday night. But this is the kind of Best Picture that will fall slowly into obscurity. It's an Ordinary People, a Dances With Wolves, a How Green Was My Valley. Zero Dark Thirty is Raging Bull, Goodfellas, Citizen Kane. It will live on, because the Oscars don't matter. What's in the hearts and minds of cinema-lovers for generations carry movies on, not a golden statue. And I've come to terms with that.
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